Finland and Sweden both neutral countries are interested in joining NATO

Finland & Sweden Prime Minister - Image Credit

Finland and Sweden both neutral countries are interested in joining NATO.

Nothing could persuade Finns and Swedes that joining NATO was a good idea during the Cold War and the decades since – until now.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered Europe's security picture, especially in Nordic neutrals Finland and Sweden, where support for NATO membership has hit record levels.

For the first time, a poll commissioned by Finnish broadcaster YLE last week revealed that more than half of Finns favor joining the Western military alliance. A similar poll in neighboring Sweden found that those in favor of NATO membership exceed those opposed.

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, a proponent of NATO membership, tweeted, "The inconceivable might start to become thinkable."

Neither country will join the alliance on a whim. Support for NATO membership fluctuates, and there is no clear majority in their parliament.

However, there are undeniable signs of change since Russia launched its invasion last week.

The invasion of Ukraine caused both Finland and Sweden to break with their policy of not providing weaponry to countries at war by delivering assault rifles and anti-tank weapons to Kyiv. Sweden is providing military assistance for the first time since 1939 when it aided Finland in its fight against the Soviet Union.

Apparently detecting a shift among its Nordic neighbors, Russia's Foreign Ministry expressed worry last week over efforts by the US and some of its allies to "bring" Finland and Sweden into NATO, warning that if they joined, Moscow would be compelled to take retaliatory measures.

Sweden and Finland's governments retorted that Moscow would not be allowed to dictate their security policies.

"I want to be very clear: Sweden decides on our security policy line by itself and independently," Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson stated.

Finland and Russia, with whom it shares a 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border, have a lot of conflicts. Finns have fought hundreds of conflicts against their eastern neighbor, both as part of the Swedish Kingdom for centuries and as an independent nation during World Wars I and II, including two with the Soviet Union in 1939-40 and 1941-44.

Finland, on the other hand, pursued pragmatic political and economic connections with Moscow in the postwar years, maintaining militarily nonaligned and serving as a neutral buffer between East and West.

For more than 200 years, Sweden has shunned military alliances, opting for peace after decades of conflict with its neighbors.

By entering the European Union in 1995 and expanding collaboration with NATO, both countries put an end to historic neutrality. However, until Russia's action against Ukraine, a majority of citizens in both nations were adamantly opposed to full participation in the alliance.

According to the YLE poll, 53 % of Finns support joining NATO, while only 28% oppose it. The poll has a 2.5-percentage-point margin of error and included 1,382 respondents who were questioned between February 23 and 25. The invasion of Russia began on February 24.

"It's a huge shift," said Matti Pesu, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. "We've got a situation where Finns' sentiments on NATO have remained extremely steady for the last 25-30 years." It appears to have entirely changed now."

Pesu said no such movement in public opinion occurred after Russia's 2008 conflict with Georgia and the 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, "therefore this is an anomaly," despite the fact that it's impossible to make conclusions from a single survey.

In a late February study commissioned by the Swedish public broadcaster SVT, 41 percent of Swedes favored NATO membership, while 35 percent opposed it, marking the first time that supporters outnumbered opponents.

The Nordic countries, who are crucial NATO partners in the Baltic Sea region, where Russia has significantly boosted its military activities in the last decade, have made it clear that they will decide whether or not to join the military alliance on their own.

"Finland's ability to maneuver and freedom of choice also includes the potential of military alignment and seeking for NATO membership, should we ourselves decide," Finnish President Sauli Niinisto stated in his New Year's speech.

Last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that "this is a question of self-determination and the sovereign right to pick your own course, and then perhaps in the future, also to apply for NATO" for Helsinki and Stockholm.

Although there are no established criteria for joining NATO, prospective members must meet certain political and other requirements. Many commentators believe that Finland and Sweden would qualify for fast-track NATO membership without having to go through long discussions and that membership might be achieved within months.

Sanna Marin, Finland's prime minister, stated last week that her Social Democratic Party would debate NATO membership with other parties, but she did not give a time frame. Everyone agrees, she added, that the events of the last several weeks have changed the game.

"We can all observe how the security situation has altered dramatically since Russia attacked Ukraine," says the group. "It is a fact that we must accept," Marin stated.

——— Contributors to this article include Associated Press reporters Karl Ritter in Stockholm and Lorne Cook in Brussels.

Source: ABCnews