Quick answer: The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has not been called. Early returns favor Talarico by a wide margin, but only part of the vote was counted at the time of this update. If he wins, he would be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988.
Last updated: November 4, 2026. Numbers below are early and will change.
Where the count stands
- NBC News shows Talarico at about 59.2% and Paxton at about 39.3%, and labels the race "too early to call."
- ABC News showed Talarico at 58% and Paxton at 40% with roughly 38% of the expected vote reported.
- NBC calculates that Paxton would need to win about 55.9% of the remaining vote to catch up.
That last number is the one to watch. It shows how steep the climb is for Paxton, but it is not a call, and it depends on which counties still have votes left to report.
Why this race matters so much
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than 30 years, and Democrats have not won any statewide race there since 1994. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Flipping Texas would be one of the biggest moves on the board, in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024.
Who are the candidates?
Ken Paxton is the state attorney general. He won the Republican nomination in a May runoff by defeating Sen. John Cornyn after Trump endorsed him. The Texas House impeached him in 2023 on charges including bribery, and the Texas Senate later acquitted him. Republicans have reportedly spent hundreds of millions of dollars to keep the seat competitive.
James Talarico is a state representative and former seminarian. He won the Democratic nomination in March over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Before Election Day, a New York Times/Siena poll had him ahead of Paxton, 50% to 43%.
Why early numbers can mislead
Texas counties report at different speeds, and large urban counties often come in early. That can make the first numbers look better for one side than the final tally. Analysts were also watching Tarrant County, a bellwether, as results came in.
What happens next
- As more counties report, news outlets will decide whether Talarico's lead is safe enough to call the race.
- If the margin ends up very close, a recount is possible.
- The result matters for Senate control, which still depends on other close races, including Alaska.
Frequently asked questions
Did Talarico win the Texas Senate race?
Not officially. He leads in early returns, but the race had not been called when this was last updated.
When did Texas last elect a Democratic senator?
In 1988. Democrats have not won any statewide election in Texas since 1994.
Why is Paxton controversial?
He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Texas Senate. He also beat the sitting senator, John Cornyn, in a primary runoff with Trump's backing.
Related coverage
- 2026 Midterm Election Results: live updates on who controls Congress
- What Is "Decoy Dan"? Alaska's Senate Race, Peltola vs. Sullivan, Explained
Sources: NBC News, ABC News, The Hill, CNBC, MS NOW, Euronews and bdnews24 election coverage, November 3-4, 2026. Results can change as votes are counted.
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