Nuclear weapons threat increases as Putin's grows more frustrate

CIA warns Putin's frustration grows. Image Credit

As Russia's war with Ukraine continues longer than the Kremlin had anticipated, a number of experts and government officials have expressed worry that, out of desperation, Russian President Vladimir Putin may turn to use nuclear weapons.

Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and many expected Russia's military to crush Ukrainian resistance quickly. However, on March 13, Russia's National Guard chief, Viktor Zolotov, publicly admitted that "not everything is moving as quickly as we would like." Putin's Russia experienced massive failures in an embarrassing turn of events including a retreat from Kyiv a few weeks later.

"Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the military setbacks that they've suffered thus far, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a possible resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," CIA Director William Burns said during a speech at Georgia Tech on Thursday.

Burns' warning isn't the first time the US government has raised concern. Russia may use a "limited first use" nuclear bomb in a scenario that would "'de-escalate' a confrontation on terms favorable to Russia," according to the Department of Defense's nuclear posture review, which documents the role of nuclear weapons and security.

If Putin uses a nuclear bomb, even a small strategic weapon, he risks starting a full-fledged war. In a mid-March interview with the BBC, Polish President Andrzej Duda indicated that if Russia uses any type of weapon of mass devastation, NATO will respond.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has also warned people about Russia regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

"NATO is meant to safeguard and defend all allies, and we send a very clear message to Russia that a nuclear war cannot and should never be fought," Stoltenberg said during a press conference on March 23. "Any deployment of nuclear weapons will fundamentally alter the essence of the fight, and Russia must recognize that a nuclear war should never be fought and that a nuclear war can never be won."

Despite the warnings, Putin may be under pressure to use such tactics as the assault continues. The intelligence community is concerned that Russia would utilize Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles, according to a senior US Air Force official working on nuclear weapons.

"Using nuclear weapons is unthinkable," the officer explained, "but the Russians are desperate, and their primary tactical nuclear system is now a proven weapon." "The promise of tactical success is frequently a deciding factor in decision-making."

On March 22, Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told CNN that there could be scenarios in which Russia would justify the use of nuclear weapons.

"Well, we have a public understanding of domestic security," Peskov explained. "All of the justifications for using nuclear weapons may be found on the internet. So, if it's an existential threat to our country, it can be employed in line with our notion."

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the country's security council, told The Guardian last month that Russia would be justified in using its nuclear arsenal in four scenarios.

"One is a nuclear missile attack on Russia. The second scenario is the use of other nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies "Medvedev told the newspaper. "The third option is an attack on critical infrastructure, which would render our nuclear deterrent forces inoperable. And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, endangering the country's existence even without the use of nuclear weapons, i.e. with conventional weapons."

According to reports, the US has already begun planning for the possibility of Russia using nuclear or other mass-destructive weapons in Ukraine. The Biden administration assembled a team of national security officials in March, according to the New York Times, to layout a reaction if Putin used chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Efforts to terminate the conflict before such weapons are utilized are still underway. Roman Abramovich is a Russian businessman, and Putin's friend is apparently attempting to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, according to Bloomberg on Sunday. Following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's claims that Russia was targeting Ukrainian citizens and that its troops were committing acts of "genocide," talks between the two nations have halted in recent weeks.

Among those who have publicly addressed the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons is Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky.

In response to Burns' remarks that the nuclear danger should not be underestimated, Zelensky told CNN, "We must not wait until Russia decides to use nuclear weapons to intervene...

We must prepare for that​."

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